Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.     

The Asymmetric Information Problem in Taiwan's Cancer Insurance Market

This paper investigates the problem of asymmetric information in Taiwan’s cancer insurance market. Through the survey data, we find evidence of adverse selection existing in this market. Furthermore, we collect additional information on the individual, and find that the individual’s family cancer history contains additional valuable information. It can not only more accurately predict the probability of contracting cancer, as well as predict the willingness to purchase extended cancer insurance, but it can also help to mitigate the severity of adverse selection in the insurance market.     

Virtual Currencies,the Money Market,and Monetary Policy

Virtual currencies are in vogue mainly due to two factors. First, as a protest against authority-driven monetary policy decisions and second, as alternatives to deficits in some monetary systems arising out of political instability or other causes. Assuming that virtual currencies indeed (partially) replace national currencies as payment vehicles, we attempt, in this article, to integrate the virtual currency supply and demand into the Keynesian money market framework. This article presents a few results for the central banks and outlines problems that may result for monetary policy formulation. Since this is the first such attempt to model a national money market as a combination of nationally-issued currency and globally-issued virtual currency, certain simplistic assumptions have been made. Nevertheless, the model offers directions on the impact of virtual currencies on the monetary system and the national money market. Additionally, the paper integrates the official standpoints of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on this topic.     

Tax competition and the political economy of public employment: a model for Austria

In this work, we simulate the effects of the tax autonomy of the Austrian states on the levels of public employment in each state. We show that depending on the strength of the public sector lobby, tax autonomy would require a reduction of employment in the public sector of between 25 and 35% of the current level. We also show that tax autonomy increases welfare levels by 1–1.5%; that is, the positive change in the disposable income of the workers more than offsets the welfare loss resulting from the lower provision of public goods. Finally, we show that the reduction of public employment is superior in terms of welfare to an alternative scenario in which employment levels are held constant but the wage levels in the public sector are adjusted.     

A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement

The financial crisis led to a number of new systemic risk measures and a renewed concern over the risk of contagion. This paper surveys the systemic risk literature with a focus on the importance of contributions made by those emphasizing a network-based approach, and how that compares with more commonly used approaches. Research on systemic risk has generally found that the risk of contagion through domino effects is minimal, and thus emphasized focusing on the resiliency of the financial system to broad macroeconomic shocks. Theoretical, methodological, and empirical work is critically examined to provide insight on how and why regulators have emphasized deregulation, diversification, size-based regulations, and portfolio-based coherent systemic risk measures. Furthermore, in the context of network analysis, this paper reviews and critically assesses newly created systemic risk measures. Network analysis and agent-based modeling approaches to understanding network formation offer promise in helping understand contagion, and also detecting fragile systems before they collapse. Theory and evidence discussed here implies that regulators and researchers need to gain an improved understanding of how topology, capital requirements, and liquidity interact.     

International business research output and rankings of Asia-Pacific universities: A 40-year time-series analysis

This study measures and ranks the performance of countries and academic institutions based on a 40-year analysis of publications appearing in 14 leading business and management journals. The focus is on the evolution of Asia-Pacific institutions in international business research output during this period. In addition, an examination is performed to identify factors associated with Asia-Pacific institutions that have achieved the highest rankings. This research shows that the Journal of International Business Studies and the Journal of World Business were central in spreading international business research, as well as in supporting research by authors from the Asia-Pacific region. Further, schools such as Harvard, Wharton, and University of South Carolina have maintained the highest ranks in research output throughout the 40-year period, but recent years have witnessed the emergence of the Chinese University of Hong Kong and University of Hong Kong, among others, in those top ranks.     

It’s not how old you are but how you are old: A review on aging and consumer behavior

The paper presents a review of 128 studies on the behavior of older consumers published in the last 35 years (from 1980 to 2014) in 35 peer-reviewed journals. The purpose of the procedure is twofold: First, we aim to summarize results on age-related changes in consumer research. Second, by doing so, we evaluate the relative importance of age-related factors (chronological, biological, psychological, and social age as wells as life events and life circumstances) in research on older consumers. Results of the review show that research on older consumers is still dominated by investigations using chronological age. Influences of other aspects of the aging process, although recommended by previous research reviews and providing valuable insights, are still playing a minor role in the investigation of consumer behavior. Research with alternative age measures is still in an early, exploratory stage and future studies should include specific aspects as well as multitheoretical models of aging.     

Price distortion induced by a flawed stock market index

Despite the introduction of sophisticated stock market indices, investors often trade portfolios of the flawed indices to change their exposure to the market. In this study, we show that these transactions cause significant mispricing in individual stocks, especially during periods of significant market movement. As an influential, albeit flawed, stock index, we focus on the Nikkei 225. We find index constituents that are excessively weighted on the index, experience buying (selling) pressure when the stock market surges (falls), and experience price corrections after such periods of change. In contrast, non-constituent stocks do not experience such trading pressure.     

Entrepreneurial resources and speed of entrepreneurial success in an emerging market: the moderating effect of entrepreneurship

This study probes into the effects of entrepreneurial resources on speed of entrepreneurial success and attempts to find if the entrepreneurship moderates the relationship. Accordingly, this study validates the hypothesis using the Cox regression model. Based on the empirical analytical result of 374 small and medium Chinese enterprises, for entrepreneurs with stronger entrepreneurship, the effect of their owned funds on speed of entrepreneurial success is more significant than those without entrepreneurship. In addition, for entrepreneurs with stronger entrepreneurship, the effect of network ties on speed of entrepreneurial success is superior to those without entrepreneurship.